# White Christmas 2026 Forecast: Snow Odds by City and the El Niño Factor By [Eoin Villarin](https://amvprosox.com/about). Published 2026-11-02. Canonical: https://amvprosox.com/blog/white-christmas-2026-forecast-usa > Will it snow on Christmas 2026? A strong El Niño tilts the northern US warm. Here are NOAA's odds by city, what the almanacs say, and when to trust a forecast. ## Will there be a white Christmas in 2026? It is too early to know for any specific place, because NOAA says snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week ahead. NOAA's October 15 winter outlook favors a warmer than average December to February across the northern US and much of the East due to a strong to very strong El Niño, which lowers odds there. Historically, NOAA's 1991-2020 normals give Duluth about a 92% chance, Minneapolis-St. Paul 74%, Chicago 34%, New York's Central Park 13% and Washington, D.C. 4%. **Key takeaways** - NOAA counts a white Christmas when at least 1 inch of snow is on the ground at 7 a.m. local time on December 25. - NOAA's winter outlook, issued October 15, 2026, favors warmer than average temperatures for the Pacific Northwest, Midwest, much of the East and Alaska from December to February. - The Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of a strong to very strong El Niño through January-March 2027 above 83%. - In NOAA's 1991-2020 normals, Duluth has about a 92% chance of a white Christmas, Chicago 34% and Washington, D.C. about 4%. - The Old Farmer's Almanac, released October 30, expects a white Christmas in the Northeast, the Intermountain region and Alaska. - Christmas enters the National Weather Service 7-day forecast around December 18, which is when snow forecasts start to become useful. Christmas 2026 lands on a Friday, 53 days from now, and the question is already back in everyone's search bar: will it snow on Christmas this year? Nobody can honestly answer that for your street yet. What forecasters can tell you is which way the odds are leaning, and this year a powerful El Niño is leaning on them hard. NOAA's winter outlook, issued October 15, favors a warmer than average December through February across the northern US and much of the East. Those are the same places where white Christmases are usually most common, so the outlook nudges their odds down. The almanacs have published their own Christmas calls too, and they do not fully agree with NOAA or with each other. Below: the official outlook, the El Niño factor, historical odds by city, where to go for snow, and when a real Christmas forecast becomes worth trusting. City odds come from NOAA's 1991-2020 climate normals; outlook details come from NOAA, its Climate Prediction Center and National Weather Service offices. ## White Christmas 2026 at a glance - **Definition:** at least 1 inch of snow on the ground at 7 a.m. local time on December 25. - **NOAA outlook (October 15):** warmer than average favored for the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Midwest, Mississippi Valley, much of the East and Alaska. - **El Niño:** a strong to very strong event is likely through January-March 2027, with odds above 83%. - **Best historical odds:** Fairbanks 100%, Aspen 99%, Marquette 96%, Duluth 92%. - **Long shots:** New York's Central Park 13%, Washington, D.C. 4%, Atlanta 1%. - **Almanacs:** The Old Farmer's Almanac expects a white Christmas in the Northeast, the Intermountain region and Alaska. - **When to trust a forecast:** about a week before Christmas, so from around December 18. ## What counts as a white Christmas? The National Weather Service uses a simple test: [at least 1 inch of snow on the ground at 7 a.m. local time](https://www.weather.gov/iwx/whitechristmas) on Christmas Day. The snow does not have to fall on December 25. A storm on December 20 counts, as long as an inch is still there on Christmas morning. Snow that starts after the morning reading does not make it official. Margins can be tiny. In 2024, New York City's white Christmas came down to [exactly 1 inch of snow in Central Park at 7 a.m.](https://abc7ny.com/post/nyc-wakes-white-christmas-time-15-years-snow-central-park/15706612/), and it was the city's first since 2009. ## What does the 2026-27 winter forecast say? NOAA's [official winter outlook](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/el-nino-looms-large-over-us-winter-outlook) covers December 2026 through February 2027. It favors warmer than average temperatures across the Pacific Northwest, northern California, the Midwest, the Mississippi Valley, much of the East and Alaska. Parts of the Southeast, including Florida, lean toward near-normal, and much of the Southwest is a coin flip. For precipitation, wetter than average is favored across the southern tier from the Southwest to the Southeast and up the East Coast. Drier than average is favored for much of Alaska, the northern Mountain West and parts of the Great Lakes. National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said a very strong El Niño will likely shift the jet stream south and east, tilting the odds toward stormier weather across the South. NOAA's caveats: these are odds for the whole season, not one day, and the outlook does not project snowfall totals. The next update is due November 19. ## How does El Niño affect white Christmas odds? This El Niño is a big one. The Climate Prediction Center's [October 8 discussion](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml) keeps an El Niño Advisory in place and puts the odds of a strong to very strong event lasting through January-March 2027 above 83%. It also gives an 83% chance that October-December reaches what CPC calls a historic event. With the storm track pushed south, the northern tier tends to run milder. That matters most in places that normally count on Christmas cold: - **The Northeast:** Cornell's Northeast Regional Climate Center looked at 22 El Niño Christmases from 1950 to 2014 and found that [all but five of the stations it mapped had lower white Christmas odds](https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/services/blog/2015/12/15_white_xmas/). Only Atlantic City and Central Park went up. - **Lake-effect cities:** A [later NRCC update](https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/services/blog/2023/12/14/) found Syracuse and Buffalo were 33 percent less likely to have a white Christmas during El Niño events. - **The Upper Midwest:** [NWS La Crosse](https://www.weather.gov/arx/winter2627outlook) found seasonal snow was generally near to below normal in the 9 strong and very strong El Niño winters since 1949-50. La Crosse and Rochester, Minnesota each came in under normal in 7 of those 9 winters. - **The West:** AccuWeather meteorologist Peyton Simmers [told Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/el-nino-white-christmas-map-snow-impact-every-state-12416167) that December in a traditional El Niño usually runs warmer than average, lowering white Christmas odds across the East, while the higher elevations of the western states are favored. A vivid example: during the strong El Niño of 2015-16, Central Park hit [72 degrees on Christmas Eve 2015](https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/warm-weather-christmas-day/), crushing the old record of 63. That does not mean 2026 will repeat it. AccuWeather, which expects below-average snow from New York to Washington this winter, has [cautioned that a single storm can change the picture](https://www.fox5dc.com/news/snow-map-reveals-states-expected-see-most-snow-winter). El Niño tilts the odds. It does not decide one specific morning. ## White Christmas odds by city: NOAA's historical numbers NOAA's [1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/us-climate-normals) include, for each weather station, the historical probability of at least 1 inch of snow on the ground for every date of the year. Those numbers power climate.gov's [interactive white Christmas map](https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/interactive-map-are-you-dreaming-white-christmas). Here is how some well-known cities compare. ![Bar chart of NOAA 1991-2020 historical chance of at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on December 25: Duluth 92%, Minneapolis-St. Paul 74%, Buffalo 53%, Salt Lake City 48%, Chicago 34%, New York Central Park 13%, Washington D.C. 4%, Atlanta 1%.](https://amvprosox.com/api/img/1793605208287-o3r8u0) *Historical odds of a white Christmas at eight well-known city stations. Data: NOAA NCEI 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals.* A wider list follows. These are single-station numbers, mostly airports, so a nearby hillside or ski town can be very different. | City | NOAA station | Chance of 1 inch or more on Dec 25 | | --- | --- | --- | | Fairbanks, AK | Fairbanks Intl Airport | 100% | | Aspen, CO | Aspen 1SW | 99.3% | | Marquette, MI | Marquette | 95.6% | | Anchorage, AK | Anchorage Intl Airport | 93.7% | | International Falls, MN | International Falls Airport | 93.3% | | Duluth, MN | Duluth | 92.2% | | Bozeman, MT | Montana State University | 91.1% | | Caribou, ME | Caribou Airport | 87.2% | | Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN | MSP Airport | 73.6% | | Burlington, VT | Burlington Airport | 62.3% | | Buffalo, NY | Buffalo | 52.7% | | Salt Lake City, UT | Salt Lake City Airport | 47.9% | | Denver, CO | Denver-Stapleton | 34.0% | | Chicago, IL | O'Hare Airport | 33.5% | | New York, NY | Central Park | 13.2% | | Philadelphia, PA | Philadelphia Intl Airport | 9.3% | | Washington, D.C. | Reagan National Airport | 4.4% | | Portland, OR | Portland Intl Airport | 3.5% | | Atlanta, GA | Hartsfield-Jackson Airport | 1.4% | | Houston, TX | Bush Intercontinental Airport | 0.0% | One note on method. NOAA's normals smooth each date's odds across a 29-day window centered on that date. Cornell's Northeast Regional Climate Center, using the same 1991-2020 years, [lists Central Park at 4% and Washington, D.C. at 3%](https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/services/blog/2024/12/17/), with Pinkham Notch, New Hampshire on top of its Northeast list at 90%. Different math, same message: the big East Coast cities are long shots. ## Where are the best odds for a white Christmas in 2026? If snow on Christmas morning is the point of your trip, combine the history with this year's outlook. My shortlist: - **Alaska.** Fairbanks has a 100% historical rate and Anchorage about 94%. NOAA leans warmer and drier for much of Alaska this winter, but that is a lot of cushion to burn through. - **The southern and central Rockies.** The station near Aspen sits at 99%. NOAA favors a wetter winter for [most of Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona](https://opensnow.com/news/post/noaa-2026-2027-winter-forecast), while Southwest temperatures are a toss-up. Climate.gov's map also [flags the Rockies and the Sierra Nevada](https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/are-you-dreaming-white-christmas) among the most reliable areas. Northern Rockies towns such as Bozeman (91% historically) face a warmer, drier lean this year. - **The Lake Superior snow belt.** Marquette, Michigan (96%), International Falls (93%) and Duluth (92%) have some of the best numbers in the Lower 48. The Midwest leans warm this year, so treat these as very good bets rather than sure things. - **Northern New England.** Caribou, Maine sits at 87% and Burlington, Vermont at 62%. The Old Farmer's Almanac expects snow in the Northeast, but NOAA leans warmer across much of the East. Skip the big I-95 cities, the Pacific Northwest lowlands and almost the entire South. Portland, Oregon, Washington, D.C., Atlanta and Houston all sit below 5%. ## What do the almanacs predict for Christmas 2026? Both almanacs publish Christmas calls months ahead. They are fun, but they are long-range outlooks built on each publication's own methods, not the kind of forecast NOAA issues. **The Old Farmer's Almanac** released its [2026 white Christmas forecast](https://www.almanac.com/white-christmas-weather-forecast) on October 30: - **White Christmas expected:** Northeast, Intermountain, Alaska. - **Chance of white:** Lower Lakes, Ohio Valley, High Plains, Pacific Northwest and the southern Appalachians. - **Not expected:** Atlantic Corridor, northern Appalachians, Southeast, Florida, Deep South, Upper Midwest, Heartland, Texas-Oklahoma, Desert Southwest, Pacific Southwest and Hawaii. **The Farmers' Almanac**, a separate publication, [calls for](https://www.farmersalmanac.com/probability-white-christmas) possibly stormy weather with heavy mountain snow in the Rockies and Plains, unsettled weather with high-terrain snow in the Pacific Northwest and Southwest, a dry but unseasonably cold Southeast, and a wintry mix rather than classic snow in the interior Northeast. It says its forecasts come from a proprietary formula based on sunspots, tides and planetary positions. Some of it lines up with the science. Writing off the Upper Midwest, normally a safe bet, fits NOAA's warm lean there, and snowy Rockies fit El Niño's wetter southern track. A cold, dry Southeast, though, runs against NOAA's wetter lean. Enjoy them as a second opinion, not a plan. ![Four cards comparing Christmas 2026 outlooks: NOAA favors a warmer winter across the northern US, CPC gives over 83% odds of a strong to very strong El Niño, the Old Farmer's Almanac expects a white Christmas in the Northeast, and the Farmers' Almanac calls for heavy mountain snow in the Rockies.](https://amvprosox.com/api/img/1793605208879-wctom7) *How the main Christmas 2026 outlooks compare as of November 2. Data: NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, The Old Farmer's Almanac, Farmers' Almanac.* ## When will we know if it will snow on Christmas? NOAA puts it plainly in its outlook: "snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance." Here is the timeline I would follow: - **November 12:** CPC's next monthly El Niño discussion. - **November 19:** NOAA updates its seasonal outlooks. - **December 11 to 17:** CPC's [8-14 day outlooks](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/), issued every afternoon, start to cover December 25. They show temperature and precipitation leanings, not snow amounts. - **December 18 to 21:** Christmas enters the National Weather Service 7-day forecast and the Weather Prediction Center's [Day 4-7 Winter Weather Outlook](https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4), which maps the chance of at least 0.25 inch of liquid-equivalent snow or sleet. - **December 22 to 24:** the window where snow forecasts are most useful. Also check NOAA's [National Snow Analyses](https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/) map, because snow already on the ground counts. That last point gets overlooked: a solid snowpack a few days out, with no thaw or rain coming, is a great sign. For now it is far too early. NOAA's snow analysis for November 1 showed snow on just 2.9% of the national area it tracks. ## Frequently asked questions ### Will it snow on Christmas 2026? It is too early to say for any specific place. NOAA favors a warmer than average winter across the northern US and much of the East because of a strong El Niño, which trims the odds there. Useful forecasts arrive about a week out, around December 18. ### What are the odds of a white Christmas in my city? Check climate.gov's interactive white Christmas map, which shows NOAA's 1991-2020 probability of at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on December 25 at weather stations nationwide. Pick the station closest to you in elevation as well as distance. ### Does El Niño mean no white Christmas? No. El Niño shifts the odds, but it cannot rule out a well-timed storm. Past El Niño Christmases in the Northeast showed lower odds at most stations, while western high country tends to hold up better. ### Which US city is most likely to have a white Christmas? In NOAA's 1991-2020 normals, Fairbanks, Alaska comes in at 100%. In the Lower 48, the station near Aspen, Colorado sits at 99% and Marquette, Michigan at 96%. Among major metros here, Minneapolis-St. Paul leads at about 74%. ### How often does New York City get a white Christmas? Not often. NOAA's normals give Central Park about a 13% chance, and Cornell's Northeast Regional Climate Center puts it at 4% using a different method. In 2024 the city got one with exactly 1 inch on the ground at 7 a.m., its first since 2009. ## The bottom line History says Alaska, the Lake Superior snow belt, northern New England and the high mountains are your best shot at a white Christmas, while the big cities from New York to Atlanta are long shots. This year a strong to very strong El Niño tilts the northern US and much of the East toward a milder winter, and the wetter southern storm track gives the southern Rockies some extra help. Check back around December 18, when a real forecast for December 25 exists. One more thought if your business lives on the holidays. People asking whether it will snow on Christmas are often deciding where to spend it, so lodges, cabin rentals, ski shops and tree farms with a fresh seasonal landing page, live availability and a fast booking path are well placed to catch them. My [holiday website readiness checklist](https://amvprosox.com/blog/black-friday-cyber-monday-2026-website-checklist) and guide to [staying visible in Google's AI answers](https://amvprosox.com/blog/google-ai-mode-seo-small-business-2026) are good places to start. When you want help building it, [get in touch](https://amvprosox.com/#contact-form) or browse my [case studies](https://amvprosox.com/case-studies).